社会管理与政府能力建构

作为主责人类权威性价值分配和管理公共生活的组织体系,政府的能力建构永远与其价值分配导向确立、职能实现以及治理绩效紧密联系在一起。一方面,适应社会发展要求和回应公共问题挑战,能力建构为政府破解各种困局、满足民众需求、履行公共职责提供了有力的改革思路和策略;另一方面,政府能力建构的方向定位体现了政府合法性的基础和依据。中国政府正面对着前所未有的强化社会管理职能的诉求,实现社会管理职能直接关系到中国社会的成功转型,而政府建构并发展与社会管理责任相适配的能力,是完成职能,达成绩效必需的基础条件。基于此,本文阐述了政府能力建构内涵、社会管理中政府能力建构的方向与依据、社会管理三个层次的政府能力建构等三个问题。     

高维大数据基因网络中的社区发现——以NC方法为例

从大量基因中识别出致病基因是大数据下的一个十分重要的高维统计问题。基因间网络结构的存在使得对于致病基因的识别已从单个基因识别扩展到基因模块识别。从基因网络中挖掘出基因模块就是所谓的社区发现（或节点聚类）问题。绝大多数社区发现方法仅利用网络结构信息，而忽略节点本身的信息。Newman和Clauset于2016年提出了一个将二者有机结合的基于统计推断的社区发现方法（简称为NC方法）。本文以NC方法为案例，介绍统计方法在实际基因网络中的应用和取得的成果，并从统计学角度提出了改进措施。通过对NC方法的分析可以看出对于以基因网络为代表的非结构化数据，统计思想和原理在数据分析中仍然处于核心地位。而相应的统计方法则需要针对数据的特点及关心的问题进行相应的调整和优化。     

网络社区发现算法在流动表建模中的设计与应用

代际流动表可以统计子代与其父代社会地位配对数据的交互频数，反映了社会资源占有的优劣势在父子两代人之间的比较。对财富、阶级、特权等社会基本特征演变的实证考察，均依赖于代际流动表的量化分析。对数线性模型是流动表建模分析的基本工具，通过对列联表单元格频数进行拟合，可以识别流动表行分类与列分类之间的强弱交互效应，刻画父子社会地位间的交互结构。本文利用复杂网络社区发现算法分析父子社会地位的关联结构，针对简约对数线性模型拟合精度不够的问题，提出一种新的建模思路：利用社区发现算法对简约对数线性模型的残差列联表进行关联关系挖掘，将发现的社区效应作为附加参数约束引入原对数线性模型，以改善数据的拟合情况。由于该方法只在原简约对数线性模型中增加了一个参数约束，因此仍可以保证建模结果的简洁性及理论意义，同时社区效应补充了原对数线性模型对经验数据结构的解读。论文用此方法对来源于中国综合社会调查数据的经验代际职业流动表进行建模分析，较好地解释了子代职业阶层与父代职业阶层间的关联模式。     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

日本思想史脉络中的中国--以竹内好的中国论述为例CSSCI

日本战败之后,经历战争的一代知识分子曾经为实现中日邦交正常化而致力于思想与知识生产,但随着世代更迭,战争记忆的传承在思想史上经历了一个断裂时期,而日本的学院体制也妨碍了其中国观的建设性发展。竹内好在这个时期敏锐地察觉到,日本社会对中国日益失去探求心的现象背后隐藏着一个巨大的危险,即在日本,中国有史以来第一次成为“未知国度”。中日之间为了真正消除战争,相互理解并不能仅仅停留在友好的层面,竹内好设想的“内在于日本的中国”至今对我们仍具有认识论的启示意义。     

A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

Digital Strategies for Building Spiritual Intimacy: Families on a “Wired” Camino

Qualitative Sociology - Researchers have explored the role that information and communication technologies (ICTs) play in mediating both religious practice and intergenerational family...     

Influence of Temporal Distance on the Perceived Importance of Career‐Related Self‐Efficacy and Outcome Expectations

Because all career choices are about future actions, time is an important contextual variable in social cognitive career choice ( Hesketh, 2000 ). However, there is a dearth of research examining the effect of time. The authors examined how temporal distance to career entry influences the perceived importance of self‐efficacy and outcome expectations concerning a career pursuit. They also examined the moderating effects of perceived support and barriers, as well as country. The participants were college students in the United States (n= 180) and in South Korea (n= 215). The results of hierarchical regression analyses did not show main effects of time, but a 3‐way interaction indicated the complex interplay of time and other contextual variables. Implications for career counseling and future research are discussed.     

“90后”大学生思政课教学新思路探析——以宁夏师范学院为例

＂90后＂大学生群体具有坚定的政治信仰、强烈的爱国热情、明确的价值取向;生活态度总体上积极健康,人生目标明确。但是由于各方面原因,这一群体对未来充满了不确定感,紧张、压抑、焦虑的情绪比较严重,如果不能妥善引导和疏通,情况堪忧。高校思政理论课在解决这些问题上发挥着重要作用。因此,思政课应从构建和谐师生关系和创新教学方法等方面,提高其教学实效性。